Women’s Super League predictions: Man City’s perfect record expected to continue against Brighton

The Women's Super League gets back underway this weekend following the international break, with plenty of intriguing fixtures at both ends of the table.

Manchester City are out on their own at the top of the pile, with their perfect record on the line against Brighton, with the chasing pack looking to capitalise if they suffer a surprise defeat.

Sonia Bompastor will be hoping to mark her 50th WSL game in charge of Chelsea with a win against Tottenham, while London City Lionesses square off against Everton. 

Aston Villa, Birmingham City and Charlton Athletic are all without a league win so far this term, while Arsenal will be aiming to kick their stuttering season back into life. 

Manchester United and Eva Olid will also be looking to continue their recent revival, with West Ham and Crystal Palace locking horns in their quest to pull clear of the bottom.

But who will be the winners and losers on MD6 in the WSL? We consulted the Opta supercomputer to find out. 

ARSENAL V BIRMINGHAM CITY

The weekend's action begins at the Emirates Stadium as Arsenal take on Birmingham City, in what is the only fixture taking place on Saturday. 

Both Arsenal and Birmingham signed off for the international break with defeats, with Renee Slegers' side losing to Manchester City while the Blues were beaten at Everton. 

This will be the first WSL campaign that Arsenal and Birmingham have met in since 2021-22, and the Opta supercomputer has backed the Gunners to return to winning ways.

Up next: Birmingham City (H) https://t.co/XeW3uZeYao

— Arsenal Women (@ArsenalWFC) October 13, 2026

Across 10,000 data-led simulations, Arsenal are assigned an 81.5% win probability, the highest of any team on MD6. Birmingham's hopes of a first league win of the season are 7.1%, while the likelihood of a draw is 11.4%. 

The Gunners' position as overwhelming favourites perhaps owes to their impressive record against newly promoted sides. Arsenal are unbeaten in each of their last 30 WSL games against such opposition (W26 D4), since a 1-0 loss at home to Man City in May 2014.

But with five points from five games, this is Arsenal's second-worst start to a WSL campaign, better only than their beginning to the 2014 season (four points), while they could go winless in five consecutive top-flight matches for the very first time. 

However, they come up against a Birmingham side that have lost each of their last six WSL away games against Arsenal, while also being the only team to concede more than once in all five of their league games so far this season. 

CRYSTAL PALACE V WEST HAM

Sunday's action starts with a London derby at The 360 Engage Stadium, with Crystal Palace and West Ham squaring off as they aim to spark their seasons into life. 

Palace have drawn their last two games against Aston Villa and Birmingham, respectively, despite conceding first in both. The Eagles had previously only avoided defeat in two of 19 WSL matches when falling behind (D2 L17), showing they are an improved outfit. 

They are just three points above West Ham, who, in their 3-0 loss to Chelsea last time out, failed to take a single shot in a game in the competition for the first time, in their 171st outing in the WSL.  

Palace have lost each of their last three games against West Ham in all competitions, with the Hammers winning 5-2 at home and 7-1 away in their previous two WSL meetings with Palace, with the latter their biggest-ever win in the competition. 

But the Opta supercomputer has backed Palace to take all three points, assigning them a 45.8% chance of victory. West Ham are predicted to win in 27.5% of simulations, with a draw rated slightly lower at 26.7%. 

CHELSEA V TOTTENHAM

Another rivalry in the capital also takes centre-stage during Sunday's early slate, as Chelsea look to keep pace at the top of the standings when they face Tottenham. 

Chelsea have won their last four league matches and could win five in a row in the WSL for the first time since the start of last season, but they face a Spurs side aiming to bounce back from a 6-1 hammering by London City Lionesses. 

The Blues have had the better of their rivals, winning all 13 of their WSL meetings with Spurs, the only team to face an opponent more than 10 times in the competition and still boast a 100% win rate, and that is expected to continue here. 

Textures of Stamford Bridge. https://t.co/3WVDzZssPg

— Chelsea FC Women (@ChelseaFCW) October 11, 2026

Chelsea are the favourites with a win probability of 78.4%, in a match that will see Bompastor oversee her 50th match in the WSL.

She has earned 122 points in her first 49 matches (W38 D8 L3) and could overtake Joe Montemurro (123) for the most points won by any manager across their first 50 matches in the competition.

Spurs will be out to spoil the party, though they are winless in each of their last 20 WSL games against 'big-four' opposition (D4 L16), since a 1-0 win over Arsenal in December 2023. In comparison, they have won 14 of their last 20 league matches against non-'big-four' opponents (D2 L4).

A win could see Spurs go above Chelsea in the table, with the Opta supercomputer rating their chances of an upset at 8.6%, while a draw was predicted in 13% of simulations. 

LONDON CITY LIONESSES V EVERTON

The big-spending London City Lionesses have enjoyed a strong start to their WSL campaign, and they will be hoping that can continue against Everton. 

London City have won each of their last three WSL matches, their longest winning run in the competition. They could win four consecutive league games for the first time since doing so between March and April 2025 in the WSL2.

And key to their fast start has been Alexia Putellas, who has four goal involvements in the WSL this term (three goals, one assist). Across the last five seasons, she has only registered more goal contributions in her opening five league appearances once: six for Barcelona in 2024-25 (four goals, two assists).

Everton have, however, won three of their opening five WSL games this season (L2), taking nine points, their joint-second highest tally at this stage of a campaign in the competition. Only in 2020-21 have the Toffees collected more from their first five matches (13). 

London City's first ever win in the WSL came against Everton last September, and they are the favourites to get one over the Toffees again here. Eder Maestre's side assigned a 57.9% win probability, while the visitors won just 20.2% of our simulations, a slightly lower chance than the match ending in a draw (21.9%). 

CHARLTON ATHLETIC V MANCHESTER UNITED

It's been a difficult return to the WSL for Charlton Athletic, with the Addicks the only team without a point so far this season, and things do not get any easier this weekend. 

Manchester United are the visitors to The Valley, with the Red Devils hoping to put together back-to-back league wins without conceding for the first time since March 2025.

This will be the first meeting between Charlton and United since the 2018-19 WSL2 season, when the Red Devils won 3-0 at home and 2-1 away, and the Opta supercomputer predicts a similar outcome on Sunday. 

United are predicted to emerge victorious in 62.4% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, while Charlton's chances of a first league win are rated at 17.8%.

Not long until we're back in #WSL action https://t.co/H76VBfvP4b

— Manchester United Women (@ManUtdWomen) October 15, 2026

The Red Devils are the only team to face newly promoted teams more than once in the WSL and still boast a 100% win rate, winning all 14 of their matches by an aggregate score of 40-4, while Charlton have lost each of their first five WSL games.

Only Yeovil Town in the 2017 Spring Series (first seven) and Leicester City in 2021-22 (first nine) have ever endured a longer losing run to begin their history in the competition.

ASTON VILLA V LIVERPOOL

Another team aiming to secure their first league win of the season is Aston Villa, who are without a victory in their last nine WSL matches (D3 L6), since a 2-1 triumph at Leicester City in March 2026, with Liverpool their next opponents. 

The Reds are out for a return to winning ways after losing away to Man United last time out, but another tricky trip on the road could prove to be a stumbling block. 

Liverpool have lost 10 of their 14 WSL away games since the start of last season (W2 D2), with the Reds winning the lowest proportion of their total points away from home among all ever-present sides in that period (33% – 8/24).

Since their promotion back to the top flight ahead of the 2022-23 season, Liverpool have only won more points in the WSL against Brighton (18) than Villa (13 – W4 D1 L3).

They may fancy their chances of ending their poor form on the road, given Villa have failed to win their first three home games against Liverpool in the WSL (D1 L2), though they were 3-0 winners in this fixture last season.

The Opta supercomputer struggles to split the two sides, with Villa's chances of victory (37.6%) rated slightly higher than Liverpool's (36%), while a draw was predicted to occur in 26.4% of simulations. 

MANCHESTER CITY V BRIGHTON

The best is saved until last as league leaders Man City will be looking to maintain their 100% start against Brighton.

City have won 10 of their last 12 meetings with Brighton in all competitions, most recently winning 4-0 in last season's FA Cup final, and they are backed to continue their dominance against the Seagulls with a 78.9% win probability.

Andree Jeglertz's side are only the third reigning champions to win each of their opening five games of a WSL campaign, after the Citizens did so themselves in 2017-18 (first seven) and Chelsea did so in 2024-25 (first nine).

An unforgettable afternoon at the Etihad! Thanks for backing us all the way today, Blues https://t.co/YaLxj3Ym7F

— Manchester City Women (@ManCityWomen) October 4, 2026

The Citizens have also won each of their last 15 WSL home games, including all 14 under Jeglertz. Since the start of last season, Barcelona (18/18) and Lyon (15/15) are the only other ever-present teams in Europe's top five leagues with a 100% record in home matches.

Brighton picked up their first win of the season on MD5 but still sit ninth in the WSL table on five points, though Opta's Expected Points model expects the Seagulls to sit third on 11 points, giving them the biggest underperformance by any side, in terms of both position and points.

The Seagulls were 3-2 winners in their most recent WSL meeting with City back in April, though their chances of taking all three points here are rated at just 8.3%, the second-lowest value of any team on MD6, while a draw is given a 12.8% chance of happening.

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